Short Hills NJ Housing Market 2026: Prices, Rates, Taxes and Outlook

Short Hills is a single-family market priced far above the Essex County median. In the three months ending May 2026, the median sale price in ZIP code 07078 was $2,310,000, the median price per square foot was $758, homes sold for an average of 106.5% of list price, and the median home went under contract in 11 days, according to the Redfin Data Center.

The median jumped from $1.88 million in spring 2024 to $2.74 million in late 2024, then settled into a $2.3 million to $2.6 million range. Price per square foot kept climbing through that plateau, so the flat median reflects which homes sold more than a stall in value.

The weakest bidding since early 2024 lines up with the January 2025 rate peak above 7%; the fastest sales in the data line up with spring 2026, after rates dipped below 6%. With the 30-year rate back at 7.03% on September 24, 2026, that pattern is the main thing to watch this fall.

How to read the Short Hills data

Short Hills is an unincorporated community inside Millburn Township, sharing the township's tax rate and school district with the Millburn section (ZIP 07041). This site's chart uses Redfin's ZIP 07078 series, where each point is a rolling three-month window, so "May 2026" covers March through May closings. Every sale in that series since it starts in August 2023 was a single-family house.

Samples are small: 35 sales in the latest window, as few as 20 in others. This analysis therefore reads the rolling median alongside price per square foot and 12-month totals from Redfin's single-month Short Hills city series.

Two years of prices against mortgage rates

The 2024 step up

In the window ending May 2024, the 07078 median was $1,875,000 and price per square foot was $646. Over the next six months the median rose quickly: $2,105,000 in July, $2,350,000 in September, $2,507,500 in October and $2,740,000 in November 2024.

That run overlaps with falling rates. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.08% on September 26, 2024, a two-year low. The rate was back at 6.81% by late November. Price per square foot rose less than the median in that period, from $646 to $670, so part of the jump came from a larger or higher-end mix of homes selling, not only from higher prices for the same house.

The plateau since late 2024

From December 2024 through May 2026, the rolling median stayed between $2.30 million and $2.59 million in every window but one (November 2025, $1,999,999, a thin 23-sale window). The May 2026 median of $2,310,000 is 1.7% below May 2025's $2,350,000 and 23.2% above May 2024's $1,875,000.

Price per square foot tells a steadier story:

Price per square foot is up 4.6% year over year and 17.3% over two years. The May 2026 reading of $758 is the highest in the series, which starts in August 2023.

A second cross-check uses Redfin's single-month city series for Short Hills. Weighting each month's median price per square foot by its number of sales gives about $623 for June 2023 to May 2024, $673 for June 2024 to May 2025, and $718 for June 2025 to May 2026. That is roughly 8% and then 7% annual growth, a pace that fits the ZIP data better than the swings in the monthly median do.

Where rates showed up

The clearest rate signal is in competition, not price. When the 30-year rate peaked at 7.04% in mid-January 2025, the three-month window ending January 2025 showed an average sale-to-list ratio of 101.4%, the lowest since March 2024, and only 38.2% of homes sold above list. By May 2026, after the rate had dipped to 5.98% in late February, the sale-to-list ratio was 106.5% and 62.9% of homes sold above list.

Volume barely moved with rates. Summing Redfin's single-month Short Hills data gives 158 sales from June 2023 to May 2024, 141 from June 2024 to May 2025, and 149 from June 2025 to May 2026. The swing between those years is about 11%, far smaller than the rate swings in the same period.

One possible explanation, consistent with the data but not proven by it, is that many buyers here use large down payments or sale proceeds, which softens the effect of rates.

Supply and competition

Inventory stays in the tens

In Redfin's 07078 series, inventory ranged from 8 homes (December 2024) to 36 homes (April 2025) over the past two years. May 2026 showed 26 homes, down from 32 in both May 2025 and May 2024.

New listings are rising while inventory falls. In the three months ending May 2026:

• New listings: 69, up from 58 a year earlier (+19%)
• Pending sales: 62, up from 49 (+27%)
• Inventory: 26, down from 32
• Median days on market: 11, down from 16
• Share going under contract within two weeks: 62.9%, up from 42.9%

The city series shows 12-month new listings of 166, 156, then 174 in the latest year. More owners listed, and buyers absorbed them.

Redfin's single-month city series put months of supply at 2.1 in May 2026, a seller's-market reading based on only 13 closings.

The fall and winter slowdown

Short Hills has a strong seasonal pattern. In the windows ending November 2025 through January 2026, median days on market ran 22 to 34 days and sale-to-list fell to about 102% to 104%. The median list price in those windows ($2.78 million to $2.90 million) was well above the median sale price ($2.0 million to $2.35 million). That gap suggests higher-priced listings were sitting while lower-priced homes sold. By the May 2026 window, the gap had narrowed to $2.50 million list versus $2.31 million sale.

In 2024, days on market reached 55 to 62 in the windows ending February and March, then fell under 20 by June.

Housing stock and what a budget buys

Redfin's 07078 series records no condo, townhouse or multi-family sales in the last three years; the city series shows a single two-to-four-unit sale, in January 2024 at $860,000. Buying in Short Hills means buying a detached house.

Dividing the May 2026 median price by the median price per square foot ($2,310,000 ÷ $758) gives roughly 3,050 square feet. That is arithmetic on two medians, not a measured median size. Monthly city medians over the past 12 months ranged from $1,695,750 (6 sales) to $4,000,000 (3 sales), mostly small-sample noise, but a sign of how wide the market is. Redfin does not publish neighborhood data inside 07078, so buyers should rely on nearby comparable sales rather than ZIP-wide medians.

Cost of ownership

Property tax

Millburn Township's 2025 general tax rate is $2.019 per $100 of assessed value, according to the township's Tax Collector page. The NJ Division of Taxation's 2025 general tax rate table lists Millburn's effective tax rate as 1.571%, which is the rate applied to market value.

On a $2,310,000 home, 1.571% is about $36,290 a year ($3,024 a month). Actual bills depend on each home's assessment.

Dividing 1.571% by 2.019% implies assessments averaged about 78% of market value in 2025, a drift that reflects how far values have moved since the last revaluation.

Revaluation risk

Millburn's last township-wide revaluation was completed as of 2017, according to the township's revaluation notice. The township has since posted that Essex County has ordered a new revaluation and that assessment postcards would be delayed because of it. The completion date was not confirmed for this article.

A revaluation resets assessments to market value and lowers the rate to match. It does not raise the total levy by itself, but it shifts the burden: homes that gained more than the township average since 2017 will likely see higher bills. Buyers should not assume a seller's current bill will carry forward.

New Jersey's graduated transfer fee on sales over $1 million

For contracts fully executed on or after July 10, 2025, the old 1% "mansion tax" paid by buyers on homes over $1 million was replaced by a Graduated Percent Fee paid by the seller, according to Bressler, Amery & Ross and Saul Ewing. The rate applies to the entire sale price:

This fee is separate from New Jersey's base realty transfer fee, which also applies. The NJ Division of Taxation's realty transfer fee page has the full schedule and exemptions.

With the Short Hills median at $2.31 million, more than half of sales in the latest window fell in the 2% tier or higher. On a $2,310,000 sale, the fee is $46,200.

Because the rate applies to the whole price, bracket edges create cliffs. At $2,000,000 the fee is $20,000; just above, it is about $40,000, so a seller needs roughly $2,020,400 to net the same. Similar jumps occur at $2.5 million ($50,000 to $62,500), $3 million ($75,000 to $90,000) and $3.5 million ($105,000 to $122,500). Sellers should confirm the exact thresholds with their attorney.

The fee change does not show clearly in the data: the fall 2025 dip matches the usual seasonal pattern, and spring 2026 was stronger than spring 2025.

Monthly payments and affordability

The jumbo loan issue

Almost every financed purchase in Short Hills needs a jumbo loan. The Federal Housing Finance Agency set the 2026 conforming loan limit at $832,750 for most of the country and $1,249,125 for high-cost areas. An 80% loan on the $2,310,000 median is $1,848,000, which is well above even the high-cost ceiling. To stay at or under $1,249,125, a buyer would need to put down $1,060,875, about 46% of the median price.

Freddie Mac's PMMS tracks conforming loans, and jumbo rates can differ, so the figures below use PMMS as a reference point, not a quote.

Payment at key rate points

Median price $2,310,000, 20% down ($462,000), loan $1,848,000, 30-year fixed. Tax is estimated at 1.571% of price ($3,024 a month). Homeowners insurance is not included.

The move from 5.98% in February to 7.03% today adds about $1,276 a month, or roughly $15,300 a year, to principal and interest on the same loan.

With 30% down ($693,000, loan $1,617,000), principal and interest at 7.03% is $10,791, or $13,815 with estimated tax.

Income needed

Using a 28% front-end ratio (housing cost as a share of gross income) and the P&I plus tax figures above:

• 20% down at 7.03%: about $658,000 of household income
• 20% down at 5.98%: about $603,000
• 30% down at 7.03%: about $592,000

The Census Bureau's American Community Survey reports the Short Hills median household income as $250,001, per Census Reporter. That value is top-coded, so the true median is higher by an unknown amount. Either way, a typical purchase at today's rates needs income well above the Census cap or a much larger down payment.

Schools

Short Hills is served by the Millburn Township School District, the same district as the Millburn section. Niche's 2026 rankings place the district #10 among New Jersey school districts, with an overall A+ grade. Niche's district profile lists 8 schools and 4,577 students, with Millburn High School as the district's high school.

Niche rankings shift year to year; the New Jersey Department of Education's School Performance Reports are the primary source for test data. Because the district covers both ZIP codes, schools alone do not explain the Short Hills and Millburn price gap. Elementary assignment for a specific address should be confirmed with the district.

Commute and transportation

Short Hills station sits on NJ Transit's Morris and Essex Line with Midtown Direct service to New York Penn Station, according to Wikipedia's Short Hills station entry. Local commuting guides, including one from Prodigy Real Estate, put peak one-seat trips to Penn Station at roughly 30 to 40 minutes, with off-peak trains running longer. Exact times vary by train, so buyers should check the NJ Transit trip planner for their own schedule.

Millburn station, on the same line, serves the 07041 side. Commuters should confirm station parking or walking access before buying.

The Mall at Short Hills, a regional shopping center, is located in the community and gives residents a nearby retail and dining option.

Comparison with Millburn and Livingston

All three figures below are Redfin rolling three-month ZIP data for the window ending May 2026, all residential.

A few points stand out:

• Millburn costs less per home but more per square foot. The 07041 median is 63% of the Short Hills figure, but its $798 per square foot is 5% higher: smaller homes, same district and rail line, lower total cost. With 19 sales, treat the gap as a signal, not a precise figure.
• Livingston offers more choice. It had 70 homes in inventory, a 38-day median and price per square foot 29% below Short Hills. Its 12-month sales (summing non-overlapping ZIP windows) fell from 378 to 328, while Short Hills rose from 141 to 148 on the same basis (149 in the city series cited above).
• Taxes favor Millburn Township. Livingston's 2025 effective rate of 1.882%, from the same NJ Division of Taxation table, would mean about $25,300 a year on its $1,345,000 median. The same Millburn rate on the 07041 median of $1,450,000 gives about $22,800.

Essex County single-family homes in May 2026 (single month) had a median of $800,000, $481 per square foot, 111.4% of list and 18 days on market. The county's percentage overbid is higher, but in dollars Short Hills is steeper: 106.5% of a list price near $2.17 million (the level implied by the $2.31 million median) is about $141,000 over.

Strategy for buyers

1. Shop the off-season. Every window ending November through February since 2023 showed sale-to-list between 101% and 104.3%, against 105% to 108% in late spring.
2. Get jumbo pre-approval early. With rates moving from 5.98% to 7.03% in seven months, a rate-lock plan matters.
3. Model the tax after revaluation. Compare the assessment with the purchase price. A home assessed well below market may see a larger increase.
4. Use nearby sales, not the ZIP median. With 20 to 64 sales per window, the median can swing $300,000 or more for reasons unrelated to any one house.
5. Compare Millburn 07041 at the same time. It shares the district, the rail line and the tax rate at a lower total price, though with fewer homes for sale.

Strategy for sellers

1. Price with the transfer fee in mind. A price just over $2.0, $2.5, $3.0 or $3.5 million crosses a fee cliff. Net proceeds should drive the decision.
2. List in spring if timing allows. The May 2026 window had a median of 11 days on market and 62.9% of homes sold above list. The November 2025 window had 33.5 days and a 102.4% sale-to-list ratio.
3. Price to recent sales. In fall 2025 and winter 2026, median list prices ran about $400,000 to $900,000 above median sale prices, a sign that ambitious top-end pricing sat.
4. Expect buyers to feel the rate change. At 7.03%, the same loan costs about $1,276 a month more than in February.

Outlook for the next 6 to 12 months

The base case from the data is a market that stays tight on supply but loses some of the spring 2026 bidding intensity. Three facts support that. Rates have risen from 5.98% to 7.03% since late February. The last time the 30-year rate was above 7%, in January 2025, Short Hills sale-to-list fell to 101.4%. And the seasonal pattern already points to slower months from November to February.

What would argue against a slowdown: inventory is lower than a year ago (26 vs. 32 in May), pending sales were up 27% year over year going into summer, and sales-weighted price per square foot rose in each of the three 12-month periods in the city data. A market with this little supply can hold prices even when demand cools.

What would change the view:

• Rates. A return below 6.5% would likely bring the spring 2026 pattern back. A sustained run above 7% would test prices at the upper end, where the transfer fee and jumbo costs are highest.
• Listings. If new listings keep rising, as they did in the latest 12 months (174 vs. 156), and buyers slow down, inventory could climb above the 30 to 36 range that marked past peaks.
• Revaluation. When new assessments arrive, some owners may face significantly higher bills, which could prompt more listings or appeals.
• Financial markets. If many down payments at this price level come from investment assets, which the data cannot confirm, a sharp stock-market decline would matter more here than in the county overall.

None of this is a price forecast. The medians are noisy, and summer 2026 data will be the first to reflect rates climbing back toward 7%.

Frequently asked questions

What is the median home price in Short Hills in 2026?

Redfin's rolling three-month median for ZIP 07078 was $2,310,000 in the window ending May 2026, with a median of $758 per square foot. The median has stayed between about $2.3 million and $2.6 million in most windows since December 2024.

Are Short Hills home prices falling?

The median was 1.7% lower than in May 2025, but price per square foot rose 4.6% over the same period. The data points to flat to rising values with a shifting sales mix, not a price decline. That reading covers data through May 2026, before rates rose back above 7%.

How much is property tax on a Short Hills home?

Millburn Township's 2025 effective tax rate is 1.571%. On a $2,310,000 home, that is about $36,290 a year. Actual bills depend on each property's assessment, and an ordered revaluation could change how the tax is split among owners.

Who pays the New Jersey mansion tax in Short Hills?

For contracts fully executed on or after July 10, 2025, the seller pays a Graduated Percent Fee on sales over $1 million, from 1% up to 3.5% of the full price. On a $2.31 million sale, it is 2%, or $46,200.

Sources

• Redfin Data Center: ZIP 07078, 07041, 07039, Short Hills city and Essex County series, through May 2026
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey
• Millburn Township Tax Collector
• NJ Division of Taxation, 2025 General Tax Rates
• Millburn Township revaluation notice
• Millburn Township notice on ordered revaluation
• Bressler, Amery & Ross: New Jersey Modifies Mansion Tax
• Saul Ewing: Amendments to New Jersey's Mansion Tax
• NJ Division of Taxation: Realty Transfer Fee
• FHFA: Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2026
• Census Reporter: Short Hills, NJ
• Niche: 2026 Best School Districts in New Jersey
• Niche: Millburn Township School District Rankings
• Wikipedia: Short Hills station
• Prodigy Real Estate: The Short Hills Commute to NYC
• NJ Transit trip planner